Post by matthew on Dec 14, 2003 22:17:09 GMT -5
My forecast one what could be a superstorm!
Starting around 48 in 56 hour time from a weak 1000 or so millibar area of low pressure moves out of the rocky mountain states...Then pulls to the northeast into southeastern Canada, by 60 to 72 hours while a long tongue of cold air is moving south on the western side of the area of low pressure...around 60 to 66 hours the storm or weak area of low pressure. Starts to weaken slowly as the cold tongue moves to the southeast in gulf moisture gets into the act aroun 66 to 72 hours...As of 60 hours the first area of rainfall shows up in SC in NC...One of the things to watch is the western ridge that is slowly building to the north...What this will cause is that cold tongue to move southeast forcing up gulf in southeastern Atlatnic moisture to form a area of low pressure. By 72 hours on this gfs model it shows a weak inland running low pressure area. The newest Eta model shows this area forming about 6 to 12 hours earler in the day then the gfs model at 18z shows it. While the Eta at 18z this was not even showing the earlest signs of a low pressure while having a stronger low over southeastern canada. It is also trending colder by about 2.0 to 4.0 degrees across the mid Atlatnic. The thinking is for this storm to start forming around 60 to 66 hours with the over all weather pattern showing a more defined ridge in the western united states forming a colder tongue of air pulling up gulf moisture then over all forming the storm. The latest gfs has shifted more to the west on the 18z by about 50 miles from the 12z but the over all weather pattern see this as the very most west this storm could track! Meaning the models have been trending over the last few days with a more Eastly day by day! Remember the last storm 3 to 4 days out was forecasted by many of the models to be a inland tracker in so was the one before that one. So with the Model bias in by the new ridge forming in the western states...Tonights Ecmwf forms a strong high in the pacific northwest...What I think is wrong with this is the storm that, we are having right now is going to brake that high pressure in the central Atlatnic (NAO) So this storm will likely form about 150 to 200 miles to the south of the Ecmwf. Now lets look more into the Gfs in Eta computer models. Lets remember how the models have trended to the west! The gfs backed up by the Eta at 12z in 18z has a low pressue just off shore or moving just inland like the one we are having tonight. Around 72 to 84 hours both models bomb this storm in has been doing so in even backed up by the GGEM all canada models in Nogaps,Cmc pretty much all the models...It is not a quastion of when this is going to bomb but where is it going to track. Then around 90 to 108 hours it moves this storm across central Main! But if the NAO works out in the way I'm thinking this storm should be about 80 to 100 miles east of this gfs forecasted track! All the models forecast this storm besides the ukmet that still shows a inland runner which I think will change. How strong will this system be the models, I think have a good handle on this because they have been trending in you know the trend is your friend! Could this be a once every 50 year snowstorm for parts of the I-95 in the major citys it is possible...One thing that will make that even more possible is that this system is going to be more east of the computer models in that will pull(With a strong storm like this)Pull the cold air into the major cities. I say right now that areas of the northeast around the I-95 area could get 2 to 3 feet of snow in one hell of a windstorm(Possible Blizzard! That is it for now.
Eta 18z
www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p06_060m.gif
www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/eta/18/images/eta_p06_066m.gif
Gfs
www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p06_066m.gif
Eta
www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/eta/00/images/eta_p06_066m.gif
www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p06_072m.gif
Ecmwf
weather.unisys.com/ecmwf/ecmwf_500p_4panel.html (ECMWF discussion)
Gfs
www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p06_078m.gif
www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p06_084m.gif
www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p06_090m.gif
www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p06_096m.gif
Starting around 48 in 56 hour time from a weak 1000 or so millibar area of low pressure moves out of the rocky mountain states...Then pulls to the northeast into southeastern Canada, by 60 to 72 hours while a long tongue of cold air is moving south on the western side of the area of low pressure...around 60 to 66 hours the storm or weak area of low pressure. Starts to weaken slowly as the cold tongue moves to the southeast in gulf moisture gets into the act aroun 66 to 72 hours...As of 60 hours the first area of rainfall shows up in SC in NC...One of the things to watch is the western ridge that is slowly building to the north...What this will cause is that cold tongue to move southeast forcing up gulf in southeastern Atlatnic moisture to form a area of low pressure. By 72 hours on this gfs model it shows a weak inland running low pressure area. The newest Eta model shows this area forming about 6 to 12 hours earler in the day then the gfs model at 18z shows it. While the Eta at 18z this was not even showing the earlest signs of a low pressure while having a stronger low over southeastern canada. It is also trending colder by about 2.0 to 4.0 degrees across the mid Atlatnic. The thinking is for this storm to start forming around 60 to 66 hours with the over all weather pattern showing a more defined ridge in the western united states forming a colder tongue of air pulling up gulf moisture then over all forming the storm. The latest gfs has shifted more to the west on the 18z by about 50 miles from the 12z but the over all weather pattern see this as the very most west this storm could track! Meaning the models have been trending over the last few days with a more Eastly day by day! Remember the last storm 3 to 4 days out was forecasted by many of the models to be a inland tracker in so was the one before that one. So with the Model bias in by the new ridge forming in the western states...Tonights Ecmwf forms a strong high in the pacific northwest...What I think is wrong with this is the storm that, we are having right now is going to brake that high pressure in the central Atlatnic (NAO) So this storm will likely form about 150 to 200 miles to the south of the Ecmwf. Now lets look more into the Gfs in Eta computer models. Lets remember how the models have trended to the west! The gfs backed up by the Eta at 12z in 18z has a low pressue just off shore or moving just inland like the one we are having tonight. Around 72 to 84 hours both models bomb this storm in has been doing so in even backed up by the GGEM all canada models in Nogaps,Cmc pretty much all the models...It is not a quastion of when this is going to bomb but where is it going to track. Then around 90 to 108 hours it moves this storm across central Main! But if the NAO works out in the way I'm thinking this storm should be about 80 to 100 miles east of this gfs forecasted track! All the models forecast this storm besides the ukmet that still shows a inland runner which I think will change. How strong will this system be the models, I think have a good handle on this because they have been trending in you know the trend is your friend! Could this be a once every 50 year snowstorm for parts of the I-95 in the major citys it is possible...One thing that will make that even more possible is that this system is going to be more east of the computer models in that will pull(With a strong storm like this)Pull the cold air into the major cities. I say right now that areas of the northeast around the I-95 area could get 2 to 3 feet of snow in one hell of a windstorm(Possible Blizzard! That is it for now.
Eta 18z
www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p06_060m.gif
www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/eta/18/images/eta_p06_066m.gif
Gfs
www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p06_066m.gif
Eta
www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/eta/00/images/eta_p06_066m.gif
www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p06_072m.gif
Ecmwf
weather.unisys.com/ecmwf/ecmwf_500p_4panel.html (ECMWF discussion)
Gfs
www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p06_078m.gif
www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p06_084m.gif
www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p06_090m.gif
www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p06_096m.gif
