Post by matthew on Dec 13, 2003 6:19:25 GMT -5
.....Nor'easter Forecast....December 14-16
The area of low pressure, that is causing snow fall across the middle of the country, the last few days. Has becomed stronger. In has given area of the midwest 4 to 7 inches of snow(Maybe upwards of 10 inches)...The models show this system moving to the west across cities like st.louis, then after that this system/low pressure area should weaken while the computer models. Which are the eta,mm5,gfs,ecmwf which is the main models this forecast is looking most into forms a area of low pressure off the Eastern seaboard of the united states. This area of low pressure is forecasted to be in different areas by what model you look at. The Gfs has been slightly trending to the southwest over the last few model runs, Which might allow two things to happen one is the low will be closer to the coast in the begaining which most areas southwest of philly, could be just plain rain for the first 6 or so hours of the storm. There is a likely ice storm or freezing rain that is going to form inland around 50 to 80 miles from the ocean. But the question is how close to the coast will this ice or snow get? There is also the canada models like the cmc plus eta, that forms a strong low pressure area in moves it up close to the coast(Which means that the areas with in 50 to 80 miles from the coast north of philly could be seeing more of a mix form most of the storm. This will most likely play out on sunday for south of philly before monday morning. I think there will likely be enough of a high pressure to the north to cause some snow all the way down to washington if there is any misture still around around mid day monday into monday night with the winds shifting from coming off the ocean to coming off the land drawing cold air from the 1028 to 1032 millibar high pressure over southeastern canada. Southwest of philly to 50 miles inland from northwestern washington a ice storm is forecasted...Maybe some ice for long island in new york city...If the eta or the cmc is right then boston could even turn over to rain for a short time monday. Qpf are around 1.00 to 1.75 with is around 10 to 17 inches of snow!
Philly 4 inches mixing in with ice then back to snow.
New york 1 to 2 inches to start out with. Then rain possible remixing to ice then back to snow for a short time period.
Boston possible 8 inches before changing over to rain! Then back again.
Most of the inland areas could get upwards of 10 to 20 inches locally.
This is the Gfs model...This looks like a pretty good mixed in with the eta in other models.
weather.unisys.com/aviation/48h/avn_850_48h.gif
weather.unisys.com/aviation/48h/avn_pres_48h.gi
weather.unisys.com/aviation/60h/avn_pres_60h.gif
weather.unisys.com/aviation/60h/avn_850_60h.gif
weather.unisys.com/aviation/3d/avn_850_3d.gif
What I mean is that areas southwest of philly will likely get a good amount of ice! In maybe areas just to the east of the snow track will get it too!
The area of low pressure, that is causing snow fall across the middle of the country, the last few days. Has becomed stronger. In has given area of the midwest 4 to 7 inches of snow(Maybe upwards of 10 inches)...The models show this system moving to the west across cities like st.louis, then after that this system/low pressure area should weaken while the computer models. Which are the eta,mm5,gfs,ecmwf which is the main models this forecast is looking most into forms a area of low pressure off the Eastern seaboard of the united states. This area of low pressure is forecasted to be in different areas by what model you look at. The Gfs has been slightly trending to the southwest over the last few model runs, Which might allow two things to happen one is the low will be closer to the coast in the begaining which most areas southwest of philly, could be just plain rain for the first 6 or so hours of the storm. There is a likely ice storm or freezing rain that is going to form inland around 50 to 80 miles from the ocean. But the question is how close to the coast will this ice or snow get? There is also the canada models like the cmc plus eta, that forms a strong low pressure area in moves it up close to the coast(Which means that the areas with in 50 to 80 miles from the coast north of philly could be seeing more of a mix form most of the storm. This will most likely play out on sunday for south of philly before monday morning. I think there will likely be enough of a high pressure to the north to cause some snow all the way down to washington if there is any misture still around around mid day monday into monday night with the winds shifting from coming off the ocean to coming off the land drawing cold air from the 1028 to 1032 millibar high pressure over southeastern canada. Southwest of philly to 50 miles inland from northwestern washington a ice storm is forecasted...Maybe some ice for long island in new york city...If the eta or the cmc is right then boston could even turn over to rain for a short time monday. Qpf are around 1.00 to 1.75 with is around 10 to 17 inches of snow!
Philly 4 inches mixing in with ice then back to snow.
New york 1 to 2 inches to start out with. Then rain possible remixing to ice then back to snow for a short time period.
Boston possible 8 inches before changing over to rain! Then back again.
Most of the inland areas could get upwards of 10 to 20 inches locally.
This is the Gfs model...This looks like a pretty good mixed in with the eta in other models.
weather.unisys.com/aviation/48h/avn_850_48h.gif
weather.unisys.com/aviation/48h/avn_pres_48h.gi
weather.unisys.com/aviation/60h/avn_pres_60h.gif
weather.unisys.com/aviation/60h/avn_850_60h.gif
weather.unisys.com/aviation/3d/avn_850_3d.gif
What I mean is that areas southwest of philly will likely get a good amount of ice! In maybe areas just to the east of the snow track will get it too!
