Post by WXJIM22 on Dec 13, 2003 13:20:24 GMT -5
Good morning folks. A very complicating forecast for the major cities of the northeast and middle Atlantic starting later tonight and lasting through Monday am.
By early Sunday morning, snow should be on the ground between Philly and DC. Accumulation of snow by late Sunday morning in all three of these cities will be 1-3 inches. Southeast of the cities will likely see less than 1 inch of snow because the snow is expected to changeover to sleet and rain sooner southeast of I 95. Meanwhile areas north and west of those cities including the Gaitherburg, Fredrick, and Reisterstown, MD area will likely see 3-5 inches of snow by Sunday morning before changing over to sleet and freezing rain. 1/4 inch of ice is likely by Sunday afternoon before briefly changing to rain, then back to snow before ending Sunday evening. Another 1-2 inches of snow is possible giving the northwest suburbs of Baltimore and Washington DC a 4-7 inch total snow accumulation by early Monday morning. In Philly's northwest suburbs, about the same 3-5 inch total before changeover Sunday afternoon. However it maybe more of a rain than freezing rain type of changeover, which will last through mid afternoon Sunday. By Sunday night, another 1-3 inches of snow is possible as rain changes back to snow potentially northwest of Philly. That gives a total snow accumulation northwest of Philly of 4-8 inches. But what about the cities of Baltimore, Washington DC, and Philadelphia? Precip will start as snow with 1-3 inches of total accumulation by midday Sunday. As low pressure develops and tracks over the Delmarva Peninsula Sunday afternoon, snow will quickly changeover to sleet and rain for the cities. The potential for 0.50 inches of rain is there. Any snowmelt could cause some flooding potential. Plus streams and creeks are high anyway for the major cities. This rain will likely just aggreviate the flooding problems. So while wintry weather is likely for cities such as DC, Baltimore, and Philly, I'd be more worried about streams and creeks possibly running out of their banks in spots. By Sunday night, all three cities should see a changeover back to snow with another 1-2 inches possible. Total overall snowfall accumulations in Philly of 3-5 inches and Baltimore and DC of
2-4 inches sounds very likely at this point.
Further northward as this low develops and intensifies, New York City will likely see 1-3 inches of snow by Sunday afternoon before quickly changing to rain in the city. The rain could change back to snow Monday am in New York with another inch possible. Total snow accumulations of 2-4 inches of snow is possible in New York City. In addition wind gusts of 35-50 mph are possible with higher winds along the coast. Gale force winds can be expected along the coast of Long Island and the Jersey shore.
Meanwhile even further north and east into Bean town, precipitation will start as snow, heavy at times Sunday evening before changing over to rain, heavy at times as low pressure is progged to move right over Boston. By Monday morning, rain is expected to change back to snow, heavy at times as low pressure moves over the Gulf Of Maine. Boston could see 4-8 inches of total snowfall accumulation, 3-6 of that falling Monday morning. Snowfall rates could exceed 1 inch per hour in Beantown Monday am. In addition, winds will be sustained at gale force with gusts close to storm force along the New England coast Sunday night right through Monday.
If folks are heading inland into central Pennsylvania northward to the capital district of Albany, NY and into northern New England Sunday, you're asking for big trouble after 3 PM tomorrow in these places. Best advice is head into those areas today before the heavy snow arrives Sunday afternoon and evening. Expect 10-15 inches of snow for the northern Poconos of Pennsylvania, 15-20 inches in Albany, NY and possibly 24-36 inches for northern new England in the ski resort areas. These areas will see all snow during this major winter storm. That's why the biggest snow will occur Sunday afternoon into Monday morning for inland sections of the northeast and new england.
Meanwhile the hot zone for icestorm potential maybe from the Blue Ridge Parkway southward into the Skyline Drive. Some places from western Virginia, eastern West Virginia, and the western Part of North Carolina Saturday night through Sunday am could see 1/4-1/2 inch of ice with local amounts exceeding 1/2 inch thick. Folks living in western North Carolina, western Virginia, and eastern Wast Virginia should quite frankly get ready to lose power as trees could fall onto powerlines due to the weight of this ice. A potentially dangerous situation and folks along I 81 from Martinsburg, WV southward into the great Smokey Mountains should stay off the roads late tonight into Sunday as ice could create major travel problems.
Looking ahead to midweek, yet another major winter storm with damaging winds and higher tide levels are possible in the northeast. It's still way too early to call precipitation or the type and amounts. But wind could be a real major part of this forecast midweek. GFS spins this thing to 980 mb off Jersey shore and 968 mb off the coast of Cape Cod through the day Wednesday. A very impressive and destructive storm system if this does in fact develop. We'll keep ya posted on this long range trend as I update this current winter storm throughout the day today right through Monday. Stay tuned.
Jim
By early Sunday morning, snow should be on the ground between Philly and DC. Accumulation of snow by late Sunday morning in all three of these cities will be 1-3 inches. Southeast of the cities will likely see less than 1 inch of snow because the snow is expected to changeover to sleet and rain sooner southeast of I 95. Meanwhile areas north and west of those cities including the Gaitherburg, Fredrick, and Reisterstown, MD area will likely see 3-5 inches of snow by Sunday morning before changing over to sleet and freezing rain. 1/4 inch of ice is likely by Sunday afternoon before briefly changing to rain, then back to snow before ending Sunday evening. Another 1-2 inches of snow is possible giving the northwest suburbs of Baltimore and Washington DC a 4-7 inch total snow accumulation by early Monday morning. In Philly's northwest suburbs, about the same 3-5 inch total before changeover Sunday afternoon. However it maybe more of a rain than freezing rain type of changeover, which will last through mid afternoon Sunday. By Sunday night, another 1-3 inches of snow is possible as rain changes back to snow potentially northwest of Philly. That gives a total snow accumulation northwest of Philly of 4-8 inches. But what about the cities of Baltimore, Washington DC, and Philadelphia? Precip will start as snow with 1-3 inches of total accumulation by midday Sunday. As low pressure develops and tracks over the Delmarva Peninsula Sunday afternoon, snow will quickly changeover to sleet and rain for the cities. The potential for 0.50 inches of rain is there. Any snowmelt could cause some flooding potential. Plus streams and creeks are high anyway for the major cities. This rain will likely just aggreviate the flooding problems. So while wintry weather is likely for cities such as DC, Baltimore, and Philly, I'd be more worried about streams and creeks possibly running out of their banks in spots. By Sunday night, all three cities should see a changeover back to snow with another 1-2 inches possible. Total overall snowfall accumulations in Philly of 3-5 inches and Baltimore and DC of
2-4 inches sounds very likely at this point.
Further northward as this low develops and intensifies, New York City will likely see 1-3 inches of snow by Sunday afternoon before quickly changing to rain in the city. The rain could change back to snow Monday am in New York with another inch possible. Total snow accumulations of 2-4 inches of snow is possible in New York City. In addition wind gusts of 35-50 mph are possible with higher winds along the coast. Gale force winds can be expected along the coast of Long Island and the Jersey shore.
Meanwhile even further north and east into Bean town, precipitation will start as snow, heavy at times Sunday evening before changing over to rain, heavy at times as low pressure is progged to move right over Boston. By Monday morning, rain is expected to change back to snow, heavy at times as low pressure moves over the Gulf Of Maine. Boston could see 4-8 inches of total snowfall accumulation, 3-6 of that falling Monday morning. Snowfall rates could exceed 1 inch per hour in Beantown Monday am. In addition, winds will be sustained at gale force with gusts close to storm force along the New England coast Sunday night right through Monday.
If folks are heading inland into central Pennsylvania northward to the capital district of Albany, NY and into northern New England Sunday, you're asking for big trouble after 3 PM tomorrow in these places. Best advice is head into those areas today before the heavy snow arrives Sunday afternoon and evening. Expect 10-15 inches of snow for the northern Poconos of Pennsylvania, 15-20 inches in Albany, NY and possibly 24-36 inches for northern new England in the ski resort areas. These areas will see all snow during this major winter storm. That's why the biggest snow will occur Sunday afternoon into Monday morning for inland sections of the northeast and new england.
Meanwhile the hot zone for icestorm potential maybe from the Blue Ridge Parkway southward into the Skyline Drive. Some places from western Virginia, eastern West Virginia, and the western Part of North Carolina Saturday night through Sunday am could see 1/4-1/2 inch of ice with local amounts exceeding 1/2 inch thick. Folks living in western North Carolina, western Virginia, and eastern Wast Virginia should quite frankly get ready to lose power as trees could fall onto powerlines due to the weight of this ice. A potentially dangerous situation and folks along I 81 from Martinsburg, WV southward into the great Smokey Mountains should stay off the roads late tonight into Sunday as ice could create major travel problems.
Looking ahead to midweek, yet another major winter storm with damaging winds and higher tide levels are possible in the northeast. It's still way too early to call precipitation or the type and amounts. But wind could be a real major part of this forecast midweek. GFS spins this thing to 980 mb off Jersey shore and 968 mb off the coast of Cape Cod through the day Wednesday. A very impressive and destructive storm system if this does in fact develop. We'll keep ya posted on this long range trend as I update this current winter storm throughout the day today right through Monday. Stay tuned.
Jim