Post by WXJIM22 on Dec 13, 2003 17:10:29 GMT -5
Good evening folks. It is still quite a complicating forecast for the major cities of the northeast and middle Atlantic starting later tonight and lasting through Monday AM as any deviation in the current forecast track will make all the difference in a winter storm forecast, especially for the major cities.
By early Sunday morning, snow should be on the ground between Philly and DC. Accumulation of snow by late Sunday morning in all three of these cities will be 1-3 inches. Southeast of the cities will likely see less than 1 inch of snow because the snow is expected to changeover to sleet and rain sooner southeast of I 95. Up to 1/4 of an inch of ice is expected in all of these areas Sunday morning before changeover to plain rain. Thus a winter weather advisory is now in effect for Baltimore City and Washington DC points south and east down across southern Maryland and the eastern and central portion of Virginia. Richmond is included in this advisory.
Meanwhile areas north and west of those cities including the Gaitherburg, Fredrick, and Westminster, MD area will likely see 3-5 inches of snow by Sunday morning before changing over to sleet and freezing rain. 1/4 inch of ice is likely by Sunday afternoon before briefly changing to rain, then back to snow before ending Sunday evening. Another 1-2 inches of snow is possible giving the northwest suburbs of Baltimore and Washington DC a 4-7 inch total snow accumulation by early Monday morning. As a result of that, a winter storm warning is in effect for western and central Maryland, southern Pennsylvania and northwestern Virginia. In southern Pennsylvania, precip will be in the form of snow with 4-8 inch total accumulation before changeover to sleet and freezing rain. Total ice accumulation of 1/4-1/2 inch thick is possible in southern PA from York to Harrisburg.
In Phladelphia's northwest suburbs, expect snow totals in the 4-6 inch range before changeover Sunday afternoon just northwest of Philly. However it maybe more of a rain than freezing rain type of changeover, which will last through mid afternoon Sunday. By Sunday night, another 1-3 inches of snow is expected as rain changes back to snow potentially northwest of Philly. That gives a total snow accumulation just northwest of Philly of 5-9 inches. Thus winter storm warnings have been hoisted northwest of Philly. The Lehigh Valley can expect 6-12 inches of snow and sleet mixed and the southeastern Poconos will see 8-14 inches of snow by Monday am.
What about the cities of Baltimore, Washington DC, and Philadelphia? Precip will start as snow with 1-3 inches of total accumulation by midday Sunday. That's why a winter weather advisory is in effect for all three cities. As low pressure develops and tracks over the Delmarva Peninsula Sunday afternoon, snow will quickly changeover to sleet and rain for the cities. 1/4 inch of ice is posible before changeover to plain rain. The potential for 0.50 inches of rain is there. Any snowmelt could cause some flooding potential to streams and creeks in the metro areas. Streams and creeks are high anyway for the major cities due to alot of recent rains. This rain will likely just aggreviate the flooding problems potentially. So while wintry weather is likely for cities such as DC, Baltimore, and Philly, I'd be more worried about streams and creeks possibly running out of their banks in spots within the metro grid. By Sunday night, all three cities should see a changeover back to snow with another 1-2 inches possible. Total overall snowfall accumulations in Philly of 3-5 inches is expected and Baltimore and Washington DC is expecting snow totals of 2-4 inches. That's the most likely scenario at this point.
Further northward as this low develops and intensifies, New York City will likely see 2-4 inches of snow by Sunday afternoon before quickly changing to rain in the city. The rain could change back to snow Monday am in New York City with another inch possible. Total snow accumulations of 3-5 inches of snow is possible in New York City. In addition wind gusts of 35-50 mph are possible with higher winds gusts along the coast. Gale force winds can be expected along the coast of Long Island and the Jersey shore with gusts to storm force.
Meanwhile even further north and east into Bean town, precipitation will start as snow, heavy at times Sunday evening before changing over to rain, heavy at times as low pressure is progged to move right over Boston. By Monday morning, rain is expected to change back to snow, heavy at times as low pressure moves over the Gulf Of Maine. Boston could see 4-7 inches of total snowfall accumulation, 3-5 of that falling Monday morning. Providence could see 2-5 inches of snow accumulation. Thus a winter weather advisory is in effect for Boston and Providence. Snowfall rates could exceed 1-2 inch per hour in Beantown Monday am and 1 inch per hour for a time in Providence. In addition, winds will be sustained at STORM FORCE along the New England coast Sunday night right through Monday. As a matter of fact, a high wind watch is in effect for Cape Cod and the outer islands along the New England coast. The expectation is there for northeast winds sustained at 35-45 mph with gusts in the 60-65 mph range. Folks could lose power in this area due to the expected strong winds.
If folks are heading inland into central Pennsylvania northward to the capital district of Albany, NY and into northern New England Sunday, you're asking for big trouble after 3 PM tomorrow in these places. Best advice is head into those areas today and this evening before the heavy snow arrives Sunday afternoon and evening. Winter storm warnings are in effect throughout the entire interior of the northeastern US. Starting soutward into southern Pennsylvania, expect 4-8 inches of snow in York, Lancaster, and Harrisburg, PA. Further north, a general 10-15 inches of snow is expected for the northern Poconos of Pennsylvania with local amounts up to 20. Expect 16-24 inches of snow in Albany, NY and possibly up to 3 feet of snow for portions of northern new England in the ski resort areas. These areas will see all snow during this major winter storm. That's why the biggest snow will occur Sunday afternoon into Monday morning for inland sections from southern Pennsylvania straight north into northern New England. Some places in New England and New York state could see snow rates of 2-3 inches per hour. Folks living in the snowstorm zones mentioned above should stay off the roads after 3 pm tomorrow.
A side note: There is a game in Foxboro tomorrow afternoon with the patriots taking on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Snow is expected later tomorrow with total accumulations of 6-12 inches in the Foxboro area. Folks going to the game tomorrow should use extreme caution and take it slow. This is a potentially dangerous situation.
Meanwhile the hot zone for icestorm potential maybe from the Blue Ridge Parkway southward into the Skyline Drive. While ice is expected for DC, Baltimore, and Philly and points north and west, some places from western Virginia, eastern West Virginia, and the western Part of North Carolina Saturday night through Sunday am could see 1/4-1/2 inch of ice with local amounts exceeding 1/2 inch thick. These areas will remain below freezing for the most part with the cold air damming in place in the low levels. Thus a longer period of significant icing potential. Folks living in western North Carolina, western Virginia, and eastern West Virginia should get ready to lose power as trees could fall onto powerlines due to the weight of this ice. A potentially dangerous situation and folks along I 81 from Martinsburg, WV southward into the great Smoky Mountains.
Folks in these areas should stay off the roads late tonight into Sunday as ice could create major travel problems.
Looking ahead to midweek, yet another major winter storm with damaging winds and higher tide levels are possible in the northeast. It's still way too early to call precipitation or the type and amounts. But wind could be a real major part of this forecast midweek. GFS spins this thing to 980 mb off Jersey shore and 968 mb off the coast of Cape Cod through the day Thursday. Winds especially in coastal sections could potentially gust well above hurricane force Thursday. A very impressive and destructive storm system if this does in fact develop. This type of system is better known as a bombogenesis meaning this low pressure system along the coast will bomb out or intensify very rapidly. We'll keep ya posted on this long range trend as this current winter storm continues to invade the northeast. At this point though, precip will mainly be rainfall for the big cities Wednesday night into Thursday.
The forecast for this current winter storm could change if the current forecast track change. Any deviation in the forecast track could cause a complete 180 in the forecast. So stay tuned for the very latest and we'll let you know what's going on as current trends develop. Later,
Jim
By early Sunday morning, snow should be on the ground between Philly and DC. Accumulation of snow by late Sunday morning in all three of these cities will be 1-3 inches. Southeast of the cities will likely see less than 1 inch of snow because the snow is expected to changeover to sleet and rain sooner southeast of I 95. Up to 1/4 of an inch of ice is expected in all of these areas Sunday morning before changeover to plain rain. Thus a winter weather advisory is now in effect for Baltimore City and Washington DC points south and east down across southern Maryland and the eastern and central portion of Virginia. Richmond is included in this advisory.
Meanwhile areas north and west of those cities including the Gaitherburg, Fredrick, and Westminster, MD area will likely see 3-5 inches of snow by Sunday morning before changing over to sleet and freezing rain. 1/4 inch of ice is likely by Sunday afternoon before briefly changing to rain, then back to snow before ending Sunday evening. Another 1-2 inches of snow is possible giving the northwest suburbs of Baltimore and Washington DC a 4-7 inch total snow accumulation by early Monday morning. As a result of that, a winter storm warning is in effect for western and central Maryland, southern Pennsylvania and northwestern Virginia. In southern Pennsylvania, precip will be in the form of snow with 4-8 inch total accumulation before changeover to sleet and freezing rain. Total ice accumulation of 1/4-1/2 inch thick is possible in southern PA from York to Harrisburg.
In Phladelphia's northwest suburbs, expect snow totals in the 4-6 inch range before changeover Sunday afternoon just northwest of Philly. However it maybe more of a rain than freezing rain type of changeover, which will last through mid afternoon Sunday. By Sunday night, another 1-3 inches of snow is expected as rain changes back to snow potentially northwest of Philly. That gives a total snow accumulation just northwest of Philly of 5-9 inches. Thus winter storm warnings have been hoisted northwest of Philly. The Lehigh Valley can expect 6-12 inches of snow and sleet mixed and the southeastern Poconos will see 8-14 inches of snow by Monday am.
What about the cities of Baltimore, Washington DC, and Philadelphia? Precip will start as snow with 1-3 inches of total accumulation by midday Sunday. That's why a winter weather advisory is in effect for all three cities. As low pressure develops and tracks over the Delmarva Peninsula Sunday afternoon, snow will quickly changeover to sleet and rain for the cities. 1/4 inch of ice is posible before changeover to plain rain. The potential for 0.50 inches of rain is there. Any snowmelt could cause some flooding potential to streams and creeks in the metro areas. Streams and creeks are high anyway for the major cities due to alot of recent rains. This rain will likely just aggreviate the flooding problems potentially. So while wintry weather is likely for cities such as DC, Baltimore, and Philly, I'd be more worried about streams and creeks possibly running out of their banks in spots within the metro grid. By Sunday night, all three cities should see a changeover back to snow with another 1-2 inches possible. Total overall snowfall accumulations in Philly of 3-5 inches is expected and Baltimore and Washington DC is expecting snow totals of 2-4 inches. That's the most likely scenario at this point.
Further northward as this low develops and intensifies, New York City will likely see 2-4 inches of snow by Sunday afternoon before quickly changing to rain in the city. The rain could change back to snow Monday am in New York City with another inch possible. Total snow accumulations of 3-5 inches of snow is possible in New York City. In addition wind gusts of 35-50 mph are possible with higher winds gusts along the coast. Gale force winds can be expected along the coast of Long Island and the Jersey shore with gusts to storm force.
Meanwhile even further north and east into Bean town, precipitation will start as snow, heavy at times Sunday evening before changing over to rain, heavy at times as low pressure is progged to move right over Boston. By Monday morning, rain is expected to change back to snow, heavy at times as low pressure moves over the Gulf Of Maine. Boston could see 4-7 inches of total snowfall accumulation, 3-5 of that falling Monday morning. Providence could see 2-5 inches of snow accumulation. Thus a winter weather advisory is in effect for Boston and Providence. Snowfall rates could exceed 1-2 inch per hour in Beantown Monday am and 1 inch per hour for a time in Providence. In addition, winds will be sustained at STORM FORCE along the New England coast Sunday night right through Monday. As a matter of fact, a high wind watch is in effect for Cape Cod and the outer islands along the New England coast. The expectation is there for northeast winds sustained at 35-45 mph with gusts in the 60-65 mph range. Folks could lose power in this area due to the expected strong winds.
If folks are heading inland into central Pennsylvania northward to the capital district of Albany, NY and into northern New England Sunday, you're asking for big trouble after 3 PM tomorrow in these places. Best advice is head into those areas today and this evening before the heavy snow arrives Sunday afternoon and evening. Winter storm warnings are in effect throughout the entire interior of the northeastern US. Starting soutward into southern Pennsylvania, expect 4-8 inches of snow in York, Lancaster, and Harrisburg, PA. Further north, a general 10-15 inches of snow is expected for the northern Poconos of Pennsylvania with local amounts up to 20. Expect 16-24 inches of snow in Albany, NY and possibly up to 3 feet of snow for portions of northern new England in the ski resort areas. These areas will see all snow during this major winter storm. That's why the biggest snow will occur Sunday afternoon into Monday morning for inland sections from southern Pennsylvania straight north into northern New England. Some places in New England and New York state could see snow rates of 2-3 inches per hour. Folks living in the snowstorm zones mentioned above should stay off the roads after 3 pm tomorrow.
A side note: There is a game in Foxboro tomorrow afternoon with the patriots taking on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Snow is expected later tomorrow with total accumulations of 6-12 inches in the Foxboro area. Folks going to the game tomorrow should use extreme caution and take it slow. This is a potentially dangerous situation.
Meanwhile the hot zone for icestorm potential maybe from the Blue Ridge Parkway southward into the Skyline Drive. While ice is expected for DC, Baltimore, and Philly and points north and west, some places from western Virginia, eastern West Virginia, and the western Part of North Carolina Saturday night through Sunday am could see 1/4-1/2 inch of ice with local amounts exceeding 1/2 inch thick. These areas will remain below freezing for the most part with the cold air damming in place in the low levels. Thus a longer period of significant icing potential. Folks living in western North Carolina, western Virginia, and eastern West Virginia should get ready to lose power as trees could fall onto powerlines due to the weight of this ice. A potentially dangerous situation and folks along I 81 from Martinsburg, WV southward into the great Smoky Mountains.
Folks in these areas should stay off the roads late tonight into Sunday as ice could create major travel problems.
Looking ahead to midweek, yet another major winter storm with damaging winds and higher tide levels are possible in the northeast. It's still way too early to call precipitation or the type and amounts. But wind could be a real major part of this forecast midweek. GFS spins this thing to 980 mb off Jersey shore and 968 mb off the coast of Cape Cod through the day Thursday. Winds especially in coastal sections could potentially gust well above hurricane force Thursday. A very impressive and destructive storm system if this does in fact develop. This type of system is better known as a bombogenesis meaning this low pressure system along the coast will bomb out or intensify very rapidly. We'll keep ya posted on this long range trend as this current winter storm continues to invade the northeast. At this point though, precip will mainly be rainfall for the big cities Wednesday night into Thursday.
The forecast for this current winter storm could change if the current forecast track change. Any deviation in the forecast track could cause a complete 180 in the forecast. So stay tuned for the very latest and we'll let you know what's going on as current trends develop. Later,
Jim
